Monday June 27, 2016





Welcome Address


WMG IMC 0.02

NIBS Round Table: Ambiguity and Learning

  • Cleotilde Gonzalez – Information and Decisions: Description and Experience Come Together in Individual and Social Interactions
  • Sujoy Mukerji – Incomplete Information Games with Ambiguity Averse Players Part 1
  • Peter Klibanoff – Incomplete Information Games with Ambiguity Averse Players Part 2
  • Aurélien Baillon – The Effect of Learning on Ambiguity Attitudes


WMG IMC 0.06



WMG IMC 0.02

Plenary 1

Agreeing to Disagree in Large Worlds

  • CAGE Keynote Speaker: Larry Samuelson – Yale University
  • Panellist: Andrew Oswald – University of Warwick



Welcome Reception & Poster Session

Tuesday June 28, 2016


WMG IMC 0.02

CAGE Round Table: Behavioural Game Theory


  • Robert Sugden – Two Ways of Reasoning about Coordination Problems
  • Rosemarie Nagel – The Interplay of Economic Modelling, Experimental and Behavioral Economics, Neuro Economics, and Humanities through Beauty Contest Games
  • Andrew M. Colman – Protocol Analysis Reveals Promiscuous Reasoning in Common Interest Games
  • Nick Chater – Virtual Bargaining as a Theory of Social Interaction


WMG IMC 0.06



Parallel Sessions 1

Other-Regarding Preferences

  • Christopher Olivola – Asymmetric Attention to Opportunity Costs Hinders Generosity
  • Collin Raymond – Skewness and Preferences for Non-Instrumental Information
  • Stefan Trautmann – The Rich, the Poor, and Social Capital – NEW!
  • David Hugh-Jones – Reciprocity towards Groups and Individuals: a Comparison

Experiments and Ambiguity 1

  • Florian H. Schneider & Martin Schonger – Allais at the Horse Race: Testing Models of Ambiguity Aversion
  • Zhihua Li – Imprecise Beliefs and Belief Updating Under Ambiguity
  • Aysil Emirmahmutoglu – Zooming in on Ambiguity Attitude: Rare Events Matter
  • Roxane Bricet – Precise Versus Imprecise Datasets: Revisiting Ambiguity Attitudes in the Ellsberg Paradox


  • Agnieszka Tymula – Expected Subjective Value Theory: A Representation of Decision in Time Under Risk
  • Caroline Chawke – Alteration of Political Belief by Non-Invasive Brain Stimulation
  • Milica Mormann – (Emotional) Reference Point Formation – cancelled
  • Manel Baucells – Where Does Satiation Come From?

Risk Attitudes 1

  • Rui Mata – Is Risk-Taking Propensity a Reliable Personality Trait? Evidence from Large-Scale, Longitudinal Study
  • Thomas Mayrhofer – Exploring the Consistency of Higher-Order Risk Preferences
  • Marc Willinger – Experimental Evidence About Local Adaptation to Background Risk
  • Eglė Butt – When Are Severe Outcomes More Probable? – Role of Base Rate


  • Daniel Navarro-Martinez – Uncertainty Regulation Theory: How the Feeling of Uncertainty Shapes Decision Making
  • Doron Sonsino – Does Overprecision Correlate with Trading Tendency? Alternative Approach
  • Louis Levy-Garboua – Confidence Biases and Learning Among Intuitive Bayesians
  • Saemi Park – Miscalibration of Probability Intervals for Events Involving Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties

Risk and Time Preferences 1

  • Helga Fehr-Duda – The Magnitude Paradox
  • Jinrui Pan – Dynamic Portfolio Choice in a Non-Expected Utility Framework
  • Sebastian Ebert – Prudent Discounting for Risky Times
  • Songfa Zhong – Intertemporal Consumption with Risk: A Revealed Preference Analysis


  • Emily Ho – The Misery of Knowing: When Information is Aversive
  • Klaus Nehring – Weighing Experts, Weighing Sources: The Diversity Value
  • Kinneret Teodorescu – Repeated Search in Variable Environments and the Role of Post-Decision Search
  • Michael Yu – Trust and Verify: the Informational Value of Early Trust


Rootes Building



Parallel Sessions 2

Limits to Loss Aversion

  • Christoph Merkle – Financial Loss Aversion Illusion
  • Ferdinand Vieider – Certainty Preferences, Random Choice, and Loss Aversion
  • Hui-Kuan Chung – Canonical Riskless Choice Over Bundles: Aint No Reflection Effects Here
  • Lukasz Walasek – Meta Analysis of Loss Aversion in Risky Context

Experiments and Ambiguity 2

  • Alex Voorhoeve – Ambiguity Attitudes, Framing and Consistency
  • Dmitri Vinogradov – What You See is What You Bet
  • Qizhi Wang – Who to Hire, Optimists or Pessimists?: Optimal Contract Under Ambiguity
  • Veronica Roberta Cappelli – Testing Biseparable Preferences

Noise and Imprecision

  • Jianying Qiu –  Imprecise Preferences: A Model and a Measurement
  • Graham Loomes – Intrinsic and Extraneous Noise in Risky Choice Experiments
  • Michael H. Birnbaum – True and Error Models of Response Variation
  • Michel Regenwetter – Random Utility Without Regularity

Applications: Business and Enterpreneurship

  • Alexander Kharlamov – A Study on Planning and Personality in Operations Management
  • Walter Hyll – The Impact of the Self-Employment Experience on Entrepreneurs’ Attitudes Towards Risk
  • Luis Santos-Pinto – A General Equilibrium Theory of Firm Formation Under Optimal Expectations
  • Graciela Kuechle – Information Acquisition in Entrepreneurial Decision Making

Strategic Interactions

  • Maria Montero – Compromise and Attraction Effects in Bargaining
  • Claudia Neri – Freedom, Power, and Interference
  • Andis Sofianos – Trust, Risk and the Repeated Trust Game
  • Ayse Gul Mermer – Effort Provision and Optimal Prize Structure in Contests with Loss-Averse Players

Risk Attitudes 2

  • Timo Heinrich – On the Development of Risk Aversion and Prudence: An Experimental Study With Chinese Children and Adolescents
  • Enrico Diecidue – Regret Theory and Risk Attitudes
  • Renato Frey – The Challenges to Measuring Risk Attitudes: Talk May Be Cheap, but Consistent
  • Serge Mace – Is an Uncertain Loss Always Better than a Sure Loss?

Choice in Context

  • Daniel M. Bartels – Anchors Or Targets? An Examination of Credit Card Statements
  • Mikhail Freer – A Revealed Preference Test of Quasilinear Preferences
  • Timo Tammi – The Influence of Experience on Bidders’ Cognitive Biases in Public Procurement
  • Seda Erdem – Why Accommodate Decision-Making Heuristics in Discrete Choice Experiments?


Comfort Break


Parallel Sessions 3

Social Choices

  • Andrew Siu – Intuition and Deliberation in Giving and Punishment
  • Ning Liu – Rebalancing the Scale of Fairness: Dictator Game with Workloads
  • Elisa Cavatorta – Experiments on Aggregate Informational Cascades
  • Xiaoou Liu – Liability Judgment Under Uncertainty and Minimization of Social Losses

Field Data

  • Christian Seidl – Are Monetary Fines in Germany Equitable and Determinate? A Critical Analysis
  • Iain Fraser – Characterising Risk Preferences Under Prospect Theory: A Study of Ghanaian Farmers
  • Tobias Bruenner – Prospect Theory in Dynamic Games: Theory and Evidence from Online Pay-Per-Bid Auctions
  • Ulrich Schmidt – Birth Order and Risk Preferences

Ambiguity: Theory and Applications 1

  • Agnes Rico – An Axiomatisation of Discrete Possibilistic Choquet Integrals
  • Peter Wakker – Measuring Ambiguity Attitudes for All (Natural) Events
  • Ido Erev – From Anomalies to Forecasts (replaces Mark Machina’s talk)
  • Tigran Melkonyan – Preference Incompleteness and the Gains from Trade

Risk and Time Preferences 2

  • Reinhard Weisser –  How Real is ‘Hypothetical Bias’ in the Context of Risk and Time Preference Elicitation?
  • Thomas Meissner – I Want to Know it Now: Measuring Preferences Over the Temporal Resolution of Consumption Uncertainty
  • Francesco Zaffuto – Aspiration Levels and Preference for Skewness in Choice under Risk
  • Taisuke Imai – Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Design: Method and Applications

Risk Attitudes 3

  • Ulrich Schmidt – Income Inequality and Risk Taking
  • Giuseppe Attanasi – Lottery- and Survey-Based Risk Attitudes Linked Through a Multichoice Elicitation Task
  • Gijs Van De Kuilen – Measuring Multivariate Risk Preferences
  • Anna Conte – Heterogeneity in Risk Attitudes Across Domains: A Bivariate Random Preference Approach

Intertemporal Choice 1

  • Lisheng He – Attention Shapes Valuation in Intertemporal Choice: A Test of Procedure Invariance
  • Daniel Read – The Value of Nothing: Asymmetric Attention to Opportunity Costs Drives Intertemporal Decision Making
  • Lea Bousquet – Measuring Time Preferences and Anticipation: A Lab Experiment
  • Cedric Gutierrez – Discounting Future Gains and Losses of Time

Gender Differences

  • Andreas Friedl – Risk Taking in Social Contexts: The Role of Nurture
  • Jan Heufer – That’s Just — Not Fair: Gender Differences in Notions of Justice
  • Katharina Lima De Miranda – Risk Taking in Groups: One Woman is Not Enough
  • Mikhail Freer – Revealed Different


WMG IMC 0.06



WMG IMC 0.02

Leverhulme Round Table: Imprecision and Noise

  • John Hey – Stochastic Specifications for Imprecise and Noisy Preferences
  • Jerome R. Busemeyer (joining by Skype) – Some Lessons Learned about Modeling Noise and Imprecision
  • Michael H. Birnbaum – Sources of Variability in Choice Tasks and Criteria for Evaluation of Models
  • Michel Regenwetter – The Geometry of Probabilistic Choice Induced by Heterogeneous Preferences and/or Error-prone Responses
  • Graham Loomes – Noisy Parameters in Risky Choice: A Cautionary Note


Rootes Building

Dinner 1 – Panorama Suite

Wednesday June 29, 2016


WMG IMC 0.02

CAGE Young Talent Round Table: Biological and Neuro Foundations of Utility and Risk

  • Ian Krajbich – Gaze Data Reveal Distinct Choice Processes Underlying Model-Based and Model-Free Reinforcement Learning
  • Cendri Hutcherson -Neurocomputational Insights into Values, Morals, and Self-control
  • Joseph McGuire – Dynamically Re-Evaluating Future Prospects
  • Elliot Ludvig – People and Pigeons Gamble Alike


WMG IMC 0.06



Parallel Sessions 4

Field Experiments 1

  • Constantinos Antoniou – Bayesian Updating: Evidence from the Field
  • Daniel L. Chen – Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseba
  • Morten Lau – Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment
  • Ofer Azar – Do Customers Return Excessive Change in a Restaurant? A Field Experiment on Dishonesty

Intertemporal Choice 2

  • Lorenzo Bastianello – About Delay Aversion: the Topological Approach
  • Michel Regenwetter – Pooled Data Do Not Tell Much About Individuals – an Illustration with Intertemporal Choice Paradigm
  • Marc Scholten – A Decision-Theoretic Diagnosis of Attitude Toward Debt
  • Lisheng He – A Comprehensive Comparison of Intertemporal Choice Models

Group and Interactive Decision Making

  • David Dillenberger – Group-Shift and the Consensus Effect
  • Guilhem Lecouteux – The Rationale of Team Reasoning
  • Enrica Carbone – Individual and Group Behaviour in a Life-Cycle Experiment Under Ambiguity
  • Chris Starmer – Measuring the Impact of Social Relationships: The Value of Oneness

Non-EU Theory

  • G. Charles-Cadogan – Harmonic Probability Weighting Functions and Mental States of Decision Makers Applied to Core Expected Utility Theory Plus Stochastic Error
  • Horst Zank – The Loss Attitude Function
  • Andre Hofmeyr – The Probability Discounting Model: A Primer for Economists
  • Alexander Harin – Can Imprecision Determine a Decision? Can Prelec’s Function Be Discontinuous at P = 1?

Measuring Risk Preferences

  • Alessandra Cillo – Strength of Preferences in Repeated Prospects: Some Experimental Evidence
  • Krzysztof Kontek – Estimating Indifference Curves Inside the Marschak-Machina Triangle Using Certainty Equivalents
  • May Attallah – Social Influence in Gain, Loss and Mixed Domain
  • Andrea Isoni – A Validation Test for Measures of Preference Imprecision


  • Cristobal De La Maza – On the Accuracy of Floods Cumulative Risk Perceptions: Evidence from Judgement and Choice
  • Nathaniel Ashby – Are Sellers Biased? A Meta-Analysis of Buyers and Sellers’ Pricing of Risky Prospects
  • Ido Erev – From Anomalies to Forecasts – moved to Tuesday, June 28, session Ambiguity: Theory and Applications 1
  • Vicky Henderson – Randomized Strategies and Prospect Theory in a Dynamic Context

Updating and Ambiguity 1

  • Adam Dominiak – Epistemic Foundation of Equilibria under Ambiguity
  • Surajeet Chakravarty – Communicating with an Ambiguity Averse Receiver – cancelled
  • Idione Meneghel – Predicting the Unpredictable: A Theory of Learning Under Unawareness
  • Daniel Schoch – Dynamically Consistent Beliefs Must Be Decomposable


Rootes Building



Parallel Sessions 5

Beliefs and Utility

  • Alex Possajennikov – Belief Formation and Updating in a Signalling Game Without Common Prior: an Experiment
  • Peter Moffatt – Heterogeneity in Preferences for Skewness
  • Michele Bernasconi – Measuring the Utility for Money in a Riskless Context: Evidence on Separable Representations
  • Tim Boonen – Pareto Optima and Competitive Equilibria in Markets with Expected and Dual Utility

Intelligence and Strategic Behaviour 1

  • Larbi Alaoui – Cost-Benefit Analysis in Reasoning
  • Ciril Bosch Rosa – Cognitive Bubbles
  • David Gill – Cognitive Ability, Character Skills, and Learning to Play Equilibrium: A Level-K Analysis
  • Dietmar Fehr – Who Knows it is a Game? On Strategic Awareness and Cognitive Ability

Ambiguity in Games: Theory

  • Ken Binmore –  Ambiguity in Games?
  • David Kelsey – Strategic Ambiguity in Two-Player Extensive-Form Games with Perfect Information
  • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio – A Note on Comparative Ambiguity Aversion and Justifiability
  • Chen Li – Social Ambiguity – presented by co-author of Uyanga Turmunkh

Field Experiments 2

  • Ronen Bar-El –  What Determines Contributions to a Real-Life Public Good?
  • Nicholas Bardsley – Focal Foods in Schools: Identifying Pluralistic Ignorance with Behavioural Games
  • Yu Gao – The Misery of Spending Down the Nest Egg
  • Matteo M Galizzi – Linking Experimental and Survey Data for a Uk Representative Sample: Risk and Time Preferences

Risk and Uncertainty

  • Guy Mayraz – The Impact of Depression and Anxiety on Choice Under Uncertainty
  • Luxi Shen – The Power of Uncertainty
  • Oded Stark – A Social-Psychological Explanation of the Variation in Risk-Taking Behavior
  • Richard Bradley – What is Risk Aversion?

Experiments and Ambiguity 3

  • Russell Golman – Information Gaps for Risk and Ambiguity
  • Anisa Shyti – A Brief Experiment on Attitudes Toward Ambiguous Time
  • Isabelle Vialle – Job Search Behaviors Under Risk and Ambiguity: An Experimental Test – cancelled
  • Nuttaporn Rochanahastin – Testing Manski’s Theory of Satisficing

Information and Experience

  • Ilke Aydogan – Cases in Memory, Decisions from Experience, and Black Swans
  • Martin Forster – Bringing New Medicines to Market Sooner? Bayes Decision Theoretic Modelling of Sequential Trials
  • Orestis Kopsacheilis – Information Communication and Quality of Risky Decisions: Reinterpreting the `D-E Gap’
  • David Hagmann – Wait, Wait, Don’t Tell Me: Repeated Choices with Clustered Feedback


Comfort Break


Parallel Sessions 6

Big Data

  • Adrian Chadi – Does Tv Consumption Affect Health and Well-Being? Evidence from a Natural Experiment
  • Gail Gilboa Freedman – Characterization of Privacy Loss
  • Ganna Pogrebna – Behavioural Data Analytics
  • Sudeep Bhatia – Expectations and Emotions: A Field Study with Big Data

Intelligence and Strategic Behaviour 2

  • Peter J. Hammond – Action-Dependent Beliefs: Could Game Theory Be Bad for You?
  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
    Diversity in Cognitive Ability Enlarges Mispricing
  • Christopher Kops – (F)Lexicographic Shortlist Method
  • Eugenio Proto – Higher Intelligence Groups Have Higher Cooperation Rates in the Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma

Axiomatic Foundations of Utility Theory

  • Vassili Vergopoulos – Subjective Expected Utility Representations for Savage Preferences on Topological Spaces
  • Simon Grant – Costly Self-Control and Limited Willpower
  • Fabio Maccheroni – Multiple Sources of Uncertainty and Varying Risk Confidence
  • Matthew Ryan – Uncertainty and Binary Stochastic Choice

Intertemporal Choice 3

  • David Freeman –  Revealing Sophistication and Naivete from Procrastination
  • Kirsten I.M. Rohde –  Intertemporal Choice – Discounting and Projection Bias
  • Philip Newall –  It Will Be Worth It, in the End
  • Leonhard Lades – Present Bias and Everyday Self-Control Failures: A Day Reconstruction Study

Games and Strategic Behavior 1

  • Frederic Moisan – When it Pays to Be Nice in the Prisoner’s Dilemma
  • David Butler – Isolating Distributional Social Preferences in 2X2 Games
  • Jack Stecher – Participants in Ultimatum Bargaining Games Have Individualistic Preferences After All
  • Daniela Di Cagno – Voluntary Cooperation in Local Public Goods Provision an Experimental Study – cancelled


  • Han Bleichrodt –  Searching for the Reference Point
  • Hela Maafi –  WTA-WTP Gap: Testing for Loss Aversion
  • Michalis Drouvelis – The Endowment Effect in Games
  • Song Changcheng – An Experiment on Reference Points and Expectations

Experiments and Ambiguity 4

  • Emmanuel Kemel – Ambiguity Attitudes Towards Imprecise Probabilities
  • Bin Miao –  Ellsberg Meets Allais: An Experimental Study of Ambiguity Attitudes
  • Yuyu Fan –  Decisions with Compound Lotteries
  • Sara Le Roux –  Strategic Substitutes, Complements and Ambiguity: An Experimental Study


WMG IMC 0.06



WMG IMC 0.02

Plenary 2

Preference: Primitive or Constructed Value?

  • Behavioural GRP Keynote Speaker: Elke Weber – Columbia Business School
  • Panellist: Neil Stewart – University of Warwick


Pick up IMC Building

Bus Transfer


CV32 4QU

Dinner 2 – Warwick Castle

Thursday June 30, 2016


Parallel Sessions 7

Indvidual Decision Making

  • Hauke Jelschen – A Dynamic Analysis of the House Money Effect
  • Bodo Vogt – Preference Reversal: a Common Behavior Rather than an Individual Abnormal Conduct.
  • Stefano Testoni – The Economics of Attention and the Implications for Decisions and Welfare
  • Malte Preuss – Income in Jeopardy: How Losing Employment Affects the Willingness to Take Risks

Health-Related Decision Making

  • Danae Arroyos-Calvera –  Can Context Explain Violations of Procedural Invariance in Health State Valuation?
  • Elyès Jouini – Emotion-Based Health Beliefs and Behaviors
  • Olivier L’Haridon – Measuring Uncertainty Preferences for Health
  • Rebecca Mcdonald – The EQ-5D in Health Judgements and Choices

Ambiguity: Theory and Applications 2

  • Hong Il Yoo – Estimating a Structural Model of Smooth Ambiguity Aversion: a Joint Maximum Likelihood Approach
  • Cedric Gutierrez – Does Overconfidence Affect Ambiguity Attitudes?
  • Chen Li – Trust and Ambiguity
  • Berend Roorda – It Is the Monotonicity Axiom!

Models of Uncertainty

  • Michal Lewandowski – Range-Dependent Utility with Constant Risk Aversion
  • Ying He – An Additive Model of Decision Making Under Uncertainty
  • Thomas Epper – Quasi-Homothetic Preferences Over Lotteries
  • Christian Nauerz – Local Prior Expected Utility: A Basis for Utility Representations Under Uncertainty

Games and Strategic Behavior 2

  • Matthijs Van Veelen – Repeated Games in Structured Populations
  • Somdeb Lahiri – Competitive Equilibrium in Generalized Games: A New Interpretation
  • Yossi Tobol – Voluntary Contributions to Real-Life Public Goods – Strategic Considerations and Contextualization
  • Benjamin Beranek – The Relationship Between Measures of Preferences in Public Good Games

Updating and Ambiguity 2

  • Daniel Heyen –  Ambiguity Aversion Under Maximum Likelihood Updating
  • Zhenxing Huang –  Belief Updating Under Ambiguity
  • Junyi Dai –  Are Intertemporal Preferences Transitive? A Bayesian Analysis of Repeated Choices
  • Konstantinos Georgalos –  Dynamic Collective Choice Under Ambiguity: An Experimental Investigation

Payment Schemes and Incentives

  • Jingyi Meng – Contingent Payment Schemes: Moral Hazard with Agents Concerned About Sure Wages
  • Joaquin Gomez-Minambres – Goal Setting in the Principal-Agent Model: Weak Incentives for Strong Performance
  • Dotan Persitz – Consistency in Choices from Linear Budget Sets: Reconciling Contradicting Experimental Evidence
  • Luc Meunier – Preference for Higher Order Moments and the Principal-Agent Dilemma


WMG IMC 0.06



WMG IMC 0.02

Plenary 3

Biological Foundations of Choice Theory

  • CAGE Keynote Speaker: Aldo Rustichini – University of Minnesota
  • Panellist: Sebastiano Massaro – Warwick Business School


Rootes Building


The Foundations of Utility an Risk Conference 2016 (FUR 2016) is pleased to announce the release of the Conference Booklet as well as the Book of Abstracts both available in electronic form below (PDF format) as well as hard copies to all participants before the conference. Final schedule, programme of the parallel sessions, and the list of posters can be downloaded separately. If you are presenting a poster, the FUR 2016 poster template is downloadable from here.

Location, Conference Dates & Programme

The FUR 2016 conference will be held in Coventry, UK, June 27-30, 2016. The conference will take place at Warwick Manufacturing Group of the University of Warwick.